Gridiron Challenge: Week 4 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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Each week, Tristan H. Cockcroft offers his strategies for the Gridiron Challenge game. Look for his best and worst matchups every Thursday.

Bye Weeks: Jaguars, Redskins, Saints, Titans.

Matchups I Like

Marion Barber III, RB, Cowboys (vs. STL, 6.2 price tag): So much for Julius Jones getting at least as prominent a role in the offense. All Barber has done thus far is net five TDs, four of them rushing, despite averaging a paltry 13 carries in three games. But he's the clear go-to guy in the red zone, with 12 touches compared to Jones' eight, and the Cowboys should have no problem getting within the 20 regularly against a defense like the Rams'.

Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks (@SF, 5.4): After a miserable, no-catch first week, Branch has bounced back with two strong efforts, totaling 13 catches and 199 yards. D.J. Hackett's injury has helped Branch's cause, but more credit must be given to the nice level of chemistry he has developed with QB Matt Hasselbeck. Expect it to keep up, and take note, Branch managed his only 100-yard effort of 2006 at San Francisco (Week 11).

Joey Galloway, WR, Buccaneers (@CAR, 5.6): Go back and check the Panthers' defensive performance the past two weeks; the Texans and the Falcons tore up their secondary, which says a lot. Roddy White had 127 receiving yards and a score in Week 3, Andre Johnson had 120 and two touchdowns in Week 2. Galloway's no Johnson, but he's better than White, so split the difference. Yup, expect 123.5 yards, 1.5 TDs. He can get a half-TD, right?

Jeff Garcia, QB, Buccaneers (@CAR, 5.7): If Galloway is in for a good day, that has to mean the same for Garcia, no? His numbers to date are hardly eye-popping, but let's give credit where credit's due; he has been a great game manager who hasn't been prone to mistakes. Against softer secondaries, a guy like this should shine, and I noted those back-to-back stinkers for Carolina's D, allowing 588 yards and four TDs total through the air.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets (@BUF, 5.1): What we saw from Jones in Week 3 -- 25 carries for 110 yards -- is far more representative of a "typical" Thomas Jones day than the two before it, at least talking 2007 full-year potential. It's no shock; it was a division game and he's edging ever closer to full health. Now Jones gets a matchup against the injury-riddled Bills run D, a perfect one to break out and start earning Jets fans' trust.

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots (@CIN, 5.8): It is absolutely frustrating to see Sammy Morris stealing all of Maroney's work near the goal line, but in spite of that, Maroney has 54 carries in three games, which is a pretty decent workload. One of these days he's going to break off a long TD run, and this is quite a meaty part of his schedule. In a game I expect to have oodles of scoring, he's a pretty good bet for 100 yards and a score.

Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles (@NYG, 6.3): All credit given to the Giants for their Week 3 performance, they still have too many problems in their secondary to contain a talent like McNabb. He's coming off a monster Week 2 performance -- 381 yards, four TDs -- but it's his track record against these Giants that warrants your attention. In his past four games against them, he has averaged 309.5 passing yards with nine TDs and no picks.

Sleepers

Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles (@NYG, 4.6 price tag): Football, to a certain extent, is a reactionary sport. How many times has a player rattled off an extraordinary effort, so you picked him up, started him, then were in shock the next week when he went quiet? Don't think opposing defenses don't work that way -- at least to an extent. With Kevin Curtis going off in Week 2, the Giants might blanket him all day, leaving Brown open to shine this time.

Steve McNair, QB, Ravens (@CLE, 5.5): I'm not at all a McNair fan, and his groin injury and the Kyle Boller factor do have me worried about his full-year prospects. Still, he knows his job is at stake, and that the matchup is the perfect one for making a statement. Note that he threw for 264 yards and a score at Cleveland last season (Week 3), and one could argue this year's Browns are worse than last's. Not a bad bargain No. 2 QB.

Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots (@CIN, 4.6): I'm not calling for the 96 points we saw in their Week 2 contest, but look at the Bengals' recent history and the last time they and their opponents totaled fewer than 40 points was Week 14 last season. These two teams, at least this year, throw, throw, throw, but count on the Patriots getting stopped in the red zone once or twice. Then, it's Sammy Morris time. I'd be shocked if he's not good for one or two TDs.

Matchups I'd Avoid

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams (@DAL, 6.1 price tag): As if it's not bad enough that he's again without Orlando Pace, who once protected his blind side, now the Rams are admitting Bulger has been playing with broken and bruised ribs. That helps explain his shoddy performance in Week 3. Now he'll face the Cowboys who, despite a shaky secondary, can be opportunistic, and he'll do it without much of a running game to keep Dallas honest.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns (vs. BAL, 5.8): TE Kellen Winslow's status has a lot to do with Edwards' appeal here, because if he's out, the Ravens can key on the young wideout all day. Here's the other problem: Ravens CB Chris McAlister showed us how rough he can be on a top receiver last week, when he shut down the Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald. It's an even easier time for McAlister this week, which is bad news for Edwards.

Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals (vs. PIT, 5.7): Through three games, it sure looks as though the "Steel Curtain" has returned, eh? OK, maybe that's an exaggeration, but the Steelers have allowed only 79.7 rushing yards per game, 4.0 yards per carry, no rushing TDs and only one run of 20 or more yards. James looked horrible against the Ravens last week and the Steelers shut down Frank Gore. Put 'em together and that's an ugly matchup.

Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals (vs. PIT, 5.7): With 13 TDs and 15 interceptions in his career to date, Leinart simply hasn't developed as quickly as the Cardinals would like, especially with regard to his concentration for a full 60 minutes. It'd be nice to say he'll be slinging the rock all day if his team trails early, but if Leinart looks bad early, Kurt Warner could certainly be the man throwing late against the staunch Steelers pass D.

Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns (vs. BAL, 5.2): Go ahead and make the case that he'll have the added motivation of facing his former team. That's true, sure, but I look at the Ravens' No. 1-ranked run D, one that allows 2.9 yards per carry, zero TDs and only one run of 20-plus yards, and I see a brutal matchup for Lewis. The Ravens know him well, and they'll assuredly be pumped up after he had unkind words for them following his departure.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (vs. GB, 5.5): Coach Brad Childress maintains that Chester Taylor will reclaim the starting role once healthy, and all indications are that Taylor should be healthy in time for Week 4. I don't take Childress literally at his word, but suffice to say, Peterson's workload will decrease noticeably. It doesn't help, either, that the Packers rank 10th against the run (90.0 yards per game) with no rushing TDs allowed.

The "Big Sixes" to Avoid

Players priced at 6.0 or higher (6.3 or higher for quarterbacks) this week.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals (vs. PIT, 6.0 price tag): For the very same reasons I'm calling Reggie Brown a potential sleeper, I'm calling Boldin a potential bust; just switch the roles around. There probably isn't a fantasy owner around who's going to sit him, but in the Gridiron Challenge, I look at that +0.4 stock increase and think you're walking right into a trap. The matchup is terrible and the Cardinals' shaky QB situation doesn't help matters.

Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals (vs. NE, 6.0): The point could be moot by the lineup deadline, as Johnson might sit with a hamstring pull, but even if he plays, I'm calling him a must-sit, and I'll go as far as to say that applies even in traditional fantasy leagues. For one thing, he's facing one of the game's best defenses. For another, his game is on Monday night, meaning by the time the Bengals decide on his status, it might be too late to find a fallback.

Have No Fear

Their matchups might not look good, but you shouldn't be worried.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals (vs. NE, 7.1): Even when he's bad, he's good. Ultimately, with the Bengals' defense so poor, Palmer constantly finds himself in passing situations in order to help his team keep pace on the scoreboard. Sure, the Patriots will force him into his mistakes, as was the case with him the past two weeks, but he could sling the ball another 40-plus times, enough to notch close to 300 yards and two scores. Not bad.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts (vs. DEN, 6.0): In most any other circumstance, I'd say steer clear of receivers facing the Broncos' All-Pro CB pair, Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly. When it comes to Wayne and teammate Marvin Harrison, though, I make an exception. They're game-changing talents, and they have a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback slinging them the ball. They'll frustrate Bailey and Bly plenty of times, for their typical great numbers.

Roy Williams, WR, Lions (vs. CHI, 6.3): Admit it, you've gotten to the point where you just look at the schedule and say, "Whoever faces the Bears' defense is in for a bad day." But is that really the case? The Cowboys moved the ball nicely against them in Week 3, and now the Bears will be without CB Nathan Vasher, a significant loss on defense. Williams, in that pass-happy offense, looks just fine as a fantasy start to me.

Tristan's Gridiron Challenge Lineup: Week 4

Week 3 Recap: My quarterbacks -- Matt Hasselbeck and Vince Young -- totaled 37 points, but beyond that, there wasn't a lot to get excited about. To date, I've actually been pretty fortunate at QB, which is odd considering in most of my leagues, I'm not particularly lucky at that one position. Marvin Harrison (5 points) and Chris Cooley (7) were stinkers facing brilliant matchups (in my mind). Tsk tsk tsk, guys! Score: 97 points in Week 3, 319 points for the season.

QB: Donovan McNabb, Eagles (@NYG), 6.3 price tag
QB: Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers (@CAR), 5.7
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (vs. KC), 6.6
RB: Marion Barber III, Cowboys (vs. STL), 6.2
WR: Joey Galloway, Buccaneers (@CAR), 5.6
WR: Santonio Holmes, Steelers (@ARI), 4.8
TE: Jason Witten, Cowboys (vs. STL), 4.9
K: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (@CIN), 4.4
D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (vs. STL), 5.1

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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